Wine sales in the United States improve

Restaurants are back, French rosés are back, and seniors are more important than ever to the wine industry.

These are some of the takeaways from a Tuesday morning presentation by wine industry analyst Jon Moramarco, managing partner of bw166.

Moramarco’s presentation came at a time when it is more difficult than ever to assess wine industry statistics. Traditionally, people look at sales in June of the current year, compare them to June of the previous year, and report that sales are up, down, or stagnant. But 2020 has been such a strange year, with restaurants closed for the most part and early stocking of the pandemic by consumers, that it has been difficult to get a true picture of what’s going on in the wine industry. throughout 2021.

Most of the wine industry’s in-year business stories are based on Nielsen data, which tracks sales in grocery and drug stores, but not most wine shops. Last year, consumers spent significantly more on groceries than usual, skewing the numbers.

Moramarco gets data from Nielsen like everyone else, but also analyzes statistics from the California Board of Equalization and the US Census Bureau. He also looks at numbers differently; he tries to analyze sales by serving – that is, a glass of wine or a cocktail – rather than in bottles.

The good news for alcohol vendors is that Americans are drinking more than ever. Moramarco said the per capita servings increased 4 percent from 2003, which bw166 uses as a base year.

Seltzer’s bubble bursts

Beer’s share of these servings has been declining for at least four years, and beer includes hard seltts, which have grown tremendously for most of that time before stagnating very recently. Wine maintained its portion share – the lowest of the three groups – while spirits siphoned off market share from beer and hard soda.

As for total wine sales, Moramarco predicts that by the end of 2021 they will increase by 1-2% in the United States, with sales in the sweet spot of $ 12-20 up 3-5%.

The restaurant industry is extremely important to the premium wine industry, so wineries will be happy to hear that spending at full-service restaurants has already returned to where it was in 2019. restaurants pay slightly more salaries than in 2019 while having about 10 percent fewer employees means that restaurant salaries have increased.

Part of the increase in wine sales is due to restocking at restaurants and vending machines, Moramarco said. Restaurant wine lists and selections by the glass are still not as wide as they used to be, but that is gradually changing. However, Moramarco said about 10 percent fewer restaurants are selling wine than in 2019.

Shipments from California wineries to distributors are up 3.1 percent; good news after a few years of sluggish growth. The dollar value of imported wines fell in 2020, but it appears to be rebounding, and the end of tariffs on European wine appears to be the reason.

“We are seeing a recovery in French rosés, which have been really affected by the prices,” said Moramarco.

One of the more interesting demographic facts he presented concerned only the age statistics of the population. As the end of the baby boom approaches senior citizen status, fewer and fewer Gen Z consumers are entering the market. There are therefore now more new consumers among “young people in their sixties” – 61 to 65 – than among 21 to 25 year olds.

“Even though people focus on younger drinkers, the growth of real consumers comes at an older age,” said Moramarco, who said it is now just as important to maintain older consumers as it is to reach the youngest.

He said one of the consequences is that older consumers drink less, so the alcohol industry can no longer think that a rising tide of alcohol will lift all their boats. Instead, it’s each producer for himself.

“This should lead to a slowdown in the growth of alcoholic beverages and a greater focus on market share: wine against beer against spirits, and also wineries taking shares from other wine producers,” Moramarco said. .

Wine Survivor, Post-Pandemic Edition, coming soon to a store near you.