Novaya Gazeta correspondent El-Hayek: Hezbollah told Moscow not to interfere in Russia’s Syrian settlement campaign

On March 15, 2021, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a meeting with the leader of Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction Muhammad R’ad. The Russian Foreign Ministry laconically announced “We confirm the fact of the meeting”[1] At the meeting, Lavrov told R’ad that Russia supports the rapid formation of a Lebanese government under Rafiq Al-Hariri as well as the return of refugees to Syria, many of whom are in Lebanon.[2]

Russia has taken note of the tenth anniversary of the Syrian fighting. and the Duma Defense Committee announced that 112 Russian soldiers had died since Russia launched its military operation in Syria on September 30, 2015.[3] Russia would like to see a political settlement in Syria that would ratify the success of this military mission. Part of the attempts to speed up a political process in Syria has been the formation of a new format made up of Russia, Turkey and Qatar. During Lavrov’s March 10 visit to Doha, he was joined the following day by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. On March 11, Lavrov held talks with Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. Later, the foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Qatar had a meeting after which they announced: “Russia, Turkey and Qatar have also expressed their intention to participate actively in the international efforts to ensure the safe and voluntary return of Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons. people at home. » [4]

Lavrov was careful to clarify that “the trilateral format on Syria between Russia, Turkey and Qatar does not replace the Astana platform, consisting of Russia, Turkey and Iran”. However, the new format will meet regularly with the next meeting to be held in Turkey.[5] Lavrov, during his recent visit to the Middle East, met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh before heading to Doha. Russia needs the Saudis to influence the Syrian opposition, but bin Farhan told him that Syria must return to Arab ownership (ie cut ties with Iran) to facilitate a political settlement.[6]

Novaya Gazeta’s Middle East correspondent Wadih El-Hayek links the arrival of the Hezbollah delegation to Russia’s efforts for a Syrian settlement. His view of the visit is that Moscow is imposing on Hezbollah not to interfere in Russia’s efforts. Given the crisis in Lebanon and the erosion of popular support for Hezbollah, El Hayek thinks Hezbollah will find it difficult to resist Russia’s demands.

El-Hayek’s analysis follows below:[7]

Sergei Lavrov meets Muhammad R’ad: (Source: Mid.ru)

“An official delegation from the Lebanese office of the pro-Iranian Shia party Hezbollah has arrived in Moscow.

“Hezbollah is not only an important political player in the Middle East region, it is also a powerful armed faction, with a quasi-state structure that duplicates state institutions. In February, Lebanese Hezbollah received an invitation to visit Moscow. The itinerary includes meetings at the Foreign Ministry, the State Duma and the National Security Council. Hezbollah gladly accepted this invitation, as the movement fell on hard times for the movement (and Russia was involved in it).

“The visit, which will last 4 days, will obviously be devoted to a discussion on the situation prevailing in Syria. Russia is visibly tired of the Syrian war which has lasted for eleven years, which has turned into internal clashes between the actors on field. .

“Even at the last meeting of the Astana process, which took place in Sochi in February, the most repeated refrain from the Russian side was the call to stop the war in Syria and start a peaceful political process.

“The plan proposed by Russia does not suit either Iran or Hezbollah, which is under Iranian control.

“Iranian interests in Syria were threatened after Russia introduced a military contingent into Syria in late September 2015.

“Tactically, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah all support Bashar al-Assad’s government; however, they have different strategic objectives.

“The Assad regime (which has a large financial debt to Iran) has found a lifeline in Russia, not only financially (the current Syrian leadership owes Russia colossal sums), but rather in terms of decreasing Iranian influence.

“Shia Iran has a long-standing relationship with the Alawite Assad family in Syria. Analysts are gently characterizing the essence of the current relationship with Bashar Assad as a ‘protectorate’. This ‘protectorate’ does not leave many options for Assad: For many years, Syria has been at the forefront of Iran’s grand geopolitical plan to unite states with large Shia presence in the so-called “Shia crescent”.

“[This crescent] extends from Iran and passes through Iraq and Syria and reaches Lebanon. It stops at Israel, whose destruction, let us remember, has been declared the ultimate goal of Hezbollah’s existence.

“The war in Syria has played to Iran’s advantage. For many years, human rights activists have spoken of ‘demographic engineering’ in Syria: Shiites from Lebanon, Iran and Iraq are settling in certain areas of Syria, which are mainly Sunnis.The indigenous population with preconceived ideas is deprived of any right and any possibility of return because of the harsh laws adopted by the regime.

“Bashar al-Assad resents his instrumental role in building a ‘Shiite crescent’. Russia’s involvement in the conflict has greatly increased his chances of negotiating [with Iranians] and choose his ally.

“By joining the Syrian conflict, Russia has greatly interfered with the plans of other parties.

“For example, the majority of smuggling routes along the Lebanese-Syrian border have been blocked. Arms and drug trafficking is of vital importance to Hezbollah.

“Later, thanks to Russian influence, the famous Fifth Assault Regiment of the Syrian Army was formed. [The Fifth Regiment] composed mainly of Lebanese and Syrian volunteers, did not appreciate Hezbollah’s methods. Fighting alongside the Russians, the soldiers of the Fifth Corps often took part in direct armed clashes with the same Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian formations.

“The agreements on joint patrols of the outskirts of Idlib reached last year between Russia and Turkey also did not work in favor of Iran. The latter had until then considered itself rightly as the dominant power in the region.

“Peace negotiations between the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition initiated by Russia are a direct threat to Iranian influence in Syria.

“Now the issue is [Iran’s] last map of the region – Lebanon, terminus of the “Shiite crescent”.

“Last week in the UAE [United Arab Emirates] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Lavrov’s message was clear: Russia will support Hariri’s efforts to create an independent government, and Hezbollah must fall in line and stop undermining Lebanese state-building.

“Today in Lebanon, Hezbollah has virtually monopolized the internal political market. Since 2005, when the Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon, every government has effectively been formed with the agreement of this party.

“Key ministries such as finance, health, defense and energy were under the control of Hezbollah and its allies. economy, have led to Hezbollah has strengthened its control over the various areas of public life through its armed wing, which is stronger and better equipped than the Lebanese army.

“However, these actions do not help much, the party is losing its ‘popular base’. Thus, last weekend in Lebanon, residents of the Shiite neighborhood of Baalbek chased out Hezbollah MP Hussein El-Hajj Hassan from his own home, accusing him of corruption, people surrounded the MP’s residence, burned tires and blocked entrances, after which the MP fled.

“During the long years of domination in the region, Hezbollah has created a solid administrative infrastructure. They have their own street cops, their own tax system, their own prisons and detention centers, into which their critics are deposited. explosion in the port of Beirut in August 2020, Hezbollah prisons are running out of places for such critics.

“Let us remember that on August 4, as a result of the explosion in the port of Beirut, more than 200 people died and many neighborhoods in the center of Beirut were destroyed. According to one version, the explosion was caused by the detonation of Hezbollah ammunition, which was stored in the same hangar with 2.7 thousand tons of ammonium nitrate seized in 2013. An international investigation into the explosion gathered evidence indicating that the ammonium nitrate, which was stored at the port of Beirut and guarded by Hezbollah militants, was likely intended to manufacture barrel bombs, which were used by the Assad regime against civilians in Syria.

“All these circumstances push Hezbollah, which is not so loved by the international community as it is, to submit and heed the diplomatic signals sent by Russia.”


Wadih El-Hayek (Source: 9tv.co.il)


[1] Tass.ru, March 16, 2021.

[2] Mid.ru, March 15, 2021.

[3] Kommersant.ru, March 15, 2021.

[4] Iz.ru, March 11, 2021.

[5] Ria.ru, March 11, 2021.

[6] Kommersant.ru, March 11, 2021.

[7] Novayagazeta.ru, March 14, 2021.

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